Modeling and Forecasting of Processes and Phenomena in Architecture
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Kijowski Narodowy Uniwersytet Budownictwa i Architektury
Publication date: 2025-06-04
KAiU 2022;LXVII(2):46-73
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ABSTRACT
At the current stage in science, research can hardly be imagined without modeling and forecasting. In architecture, modeling is usually understood as the creation of a model of an object of architecture or urban planning with all its components. In addition to the rationally represented sides of the object that are quantifiable, such objects always have components described through expert evaluations and heuristic methods. Forecasting is an area where it is more appropriate to establish trends and directions rather than quantitative indicators of the dynamics of the object being forecast.
The Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture is developing a scientific school of applying information technology in modeling and forecasting of the development of architectural and urban planning processes. Models are constructed based on quantitative, qualitative and temporal characteristics of objects and undergo several simulations and introduction of different variable parameters. Such models include a wide class of indicators, starting from territories, structures, technological equipment, creation processes, and system dynamics, up to the implementation of legislative initiatives and modeling their impact on the behavior of large systems of national scale and importance.
A typical example that demonstrated the effectiveness and capability of modeling and forecasting of the system is the competitive design and implementation of Kyiv City project on Rybalskyi Peninsula on the Dnieper River, which is located almost in the center of the Ukrainian capital. It was planned to erect administrative, public, office, residential buildings and create significant public spaces on the site of the industrial zone on an area of 100 hectares. For the implementation of the project, a structural and logical model of all system components was created, which made it possible to predict the consequences of architectural, planning, technological, social solutions and avoid possible errors and conflicts in the interaction of structural elements within the system. Thanks to the system created, a decision was made to stop the implementation of the project in time during the 2008-2009 crisis, saving the planned significant private investments in the Kyiv City project.